CIGS堀井特別顧問はコロンビア大学ビジネススクール（CJEB）が主催するセミナーにおいて「Abenomics: Skepticism and Hope」と題し、講演を行いました。
Abenomics is now almost three years old, counting from the day Mr. Abe became prime minister. There have been salient improvements in the labor market as well as corporate profitability since its inception. On the inflation front, Japan's economy exited from deflation although it has yet to reach a stationary state of 2 percent inflation.
Nevertheless, there is still deep skepticism about Abenomics. Particularly strong in the academics is doubt about the efficacy of BOJ monetary policy, QQE, saying that QQE cannot raise economic growth trend, which is constrained by Japan's unfavorable demography. Alongside this criticism, risks involved in QQE are also pointed out such as risk of asset price distortions and its implications for speculative bubbles.
Akinari Horii examines these points and concludes that QQE can influence economic growth by influencing financial asset prices, which in turn influence a wider spectrum of assets like commodities, property, goods and services as well as risk appetite in the economy. On the flipside of this there is a risk of unsustainable bubbles in theory, but at present the risk is low in light of low leverage in the Japanese private sector.
Akinari also discusses fiscal policy aspects of Abenomics, which he considers to have been successful in terms of economic performance and budget deficit reduction. However, he believes that much more must be done so as to make Japan's economy stand on a sustainable foundation as well as to minimize risks inherent in aggressive monetary policy.
Columbia Business School